The Fed hiked a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on a unanimous 12-0 vote, the first increase since July 2023, and Chair Warsh said “the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.” The dot plot moved every projection higher: the 2026 target rate went from 3.8% to 4.1% and 2027 from 3.6% to 4.1%, 16 of 18 officials penciled in another hike this year, and by the Fed's own math the first real cuts do not land until 2028. Markets are betting on one-and-done, with odds of an October hold jumping to 85% from 65%
CCG takeThe number that changed a borrower's package this week is not the quarter point but the 2027 line: the Fed's own projection now shows no net cuts next year, so any pro forma with a 2027 refinancing, take-out or step-down in the interest line assumed at a lower rate is carrying an assumption the lender's own economist no longer holds. Re-run the DSCR flat at today's quoted rate through the stabilized year, and for floating-rate debt price one more hike into the worst case, since that is what 16 of 18 officials expect. The 85% October hold is a pause, not a pivot, and should be presented as such in any credit memo.
Federal Reserve / Milk Road / Robinhood Snacks / Bloomberg