The September 16 FOMC has turned from coin-flip to near-consensus tightening, with markets putting a hike near 85–90% under new chair Kevin Warsh: August core CPI ran +0.3% m/m against +0.2% expected, headline landed as forecast at +0.4% m/m and +3.4% y/y, annual core eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, and the economy underneath is running hot with payrolls at 162K against a 53K consensus and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking Q3 growth at 4.7%
CCG takeA hike that is 85–90% priced is already in the index a lender quotes today, so the cost of a floating-rate construction loan or line of credit is not waiting for Wednesday; what Wednesday decides is whether the move after that is another increase. With growth tracking 4.7% and payrolls three times consensus, the Fed has no slack-economy reason to stop at one, and a project underwritten this summer on the assumption that rates had peaked should carry a DSCR case that assumes more than the single increase already priced into the credit committee. The annual core easing to 2.4% is the argument a borrower can make for a tighter spread over the index, not for a lower index.
BLS / Federal Reserve / Atlanta Fed GDPNow via Milk Road and AP