The Federal Reserve held at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday in a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike, and Chair Warsh said he will reduce the number of rate-setting meetings starting next year. Markets price roughly an 80% chance of a December increase; Nuveen expects one more hike by year-end and then a hold through 2027. The data gave the Fed no reason to ease: Q3 GDP came in at 3.4% annualized, up from 2.2% in Q2 per the BEA advance estimate, jobless claims fell to 194,000 for the week ending October 24, and September headline PCE rose 3.6% year over year with core PCE at 3.1%. The 10-year Treasury fell about 9 basis points to roughly 4.90% on Friday, a second straight day of duration buying, after touching above 5.3% earlier in October, its highest since 2002; no confirmed October 30 close was available for the 2-year, per the Federal Reserve, Nuveen, the BEA and Yahoo Finance via Opening Bell Daily, and CNBC.
CCG takeTwo committee members voting for a hike while the market prices one for December means the question for any package reaching a credit committee in the first quarter is no longer whether rates fall but when they rise, so coverage should be shown at today's cost of debt plus a quarter point and the covenant tested at that higher level. Friday's 10-year at 4.90% was a flight-to-safety bid on a day equities sold off, not a change in Fed direction, and a sponsor with a fixed takeout should treat it as a lock window rather than a base case. Fewer rate-setting meetings next year also means fewer and larger repricing points, which argues for sizing the interest reserve on a SOFR-based construction loan with more cushion than the current forward curve implies.
Federal Reserve / Nuveen / BEA / CNBC